Quantifying Errors in Renewable Energy Forecasting Models

Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology (OIST) Background
In renewable energy, utility operators use forecast models to predict energy fluctuations over a future time horizon to account for operating reserves, and protect grid infrastructure from instabilities. These models are inaccurate and as a result operation reserves may be inadequate or over-provided, and grid instabilities may be caused by under or over production of power. Forecasting enables operators to manage varying levels of power generation and operate equipment efficiently and traders to make marketing decisions. However, in a report by an operator, over the 5 year period 2008-2013, wind power failed to meet forecast 58% of the time.
Technology Overview
This invention makes it possible to quantify two errors, which can be used to qualify and improve forecast models, protecting against losses in revenue and grid instabilities caused by energy fluctuations.

Further Details
Re-thinking Renewable Energy Predictions
The Answer is Blowing in the Wind
Benefits

Minimal data is required to perform forecast error analysis time series for actual power generated and forecast power
Applicable to data sampled at any rate

Applications

Wind power
Ocean power
Solar power
Other renewable energy sources

Opportunity

Licensees of this technology are actively sought.
A proof of concept based on real world data is available to demonstrate the feasibility of this invention.
Proof of concept based on the data of the prospective licensee or customer thereof is available after execution of an NDA.

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